Strategy in the age of devastating innovation big bang disruption. But little has been said about what it takes to get there and what users are actually looking for before they join. Some technologies, such as steel, paper or cement manufacturing, have a long lifespan with minor variations in technology incorporated with time while in other cases, such as electronic or pharmaceutical products. The s curves of radical and incremental innovation. If you dont understand the s curve, you should not be investing in technology. Strategy in the age of devastating innovation big bang. Mar 22, 2015 disruptive innovation theory observes how new innovations create a new market and a new value network, which in turn disrupts an existing market. Marketing and selling disruptive products to mainstream customer. But until recently, hotels, taxi services, doctors and energy companies had little to fear from the information revolution.
Disruptive technologies and their implications for. Music, movies, games, communication, and knowledge are everavailable on alwaysconnected devices. With the s curve growing shorter within the technology adoption life cycle, consumers are integrating technology into their lives with less hesitation. Harvard business school professor clayton christensen is the architect of and the worlds foremost authority on disruptive innovation.
Jun 20, 2016 ubers move to take on the taxi industry seems counterintuitive at first for students of disruptive innovation because, from the outside, it appears to be a march downmarket as opposed to up. As a potential threat sthomond, herzberg and lettice 2003 investigate some ways that companies do this. The s curve describes how supply, demand and profit work in a fastgrowing market. In the third phase, we used a manual process to determine which. May 08, 2017 digital disruption scurve the digital disruption scurve from mckinsey below clearly illustrates what established companies must understand and accept, before they are likely to undertake legitimate transformation and shake off the great digital illusion they might be under right now. The invention of movable type was an instance of a disruptive technology. A disruption framework aalto universitys research and. New product development and major investments in research depend upon a. Drawing on nearly a decade of research on thousands of companies from scores of industries around the world, nunes and breene show that too many leaders manage. A broadbased disruptive technology can lead to the destruction of an old technology, a business model or business vitality, a community, or a countrys economy or security.
Understanding the technology s curve seeking alpha. It assists in determining the level of maturity of the industry product and where it is in relation to the innovators dilemma concept and the products adoption curve. This book is about the failure of companies to stay atop their industries when they. Advances that will transform life, business, and the global economy mckinsey global institute were our experts in mobile internet technology. Adoption is relatively slow at the base of the s, until a tipping point is reached. Mar 15, 2019 the innovators dilemma is promoting a continuous innovation process within any industry. Christian sandstrom holds a phd from chalmersuniversity of technology, sweden. Disruptive innovation, as coined by clayton christenson the innovators dilemma, refers to an innovation that creates a new market by applying a different set of values, and which ultimately and unexpectedly overtakes an existing market. This presentation will introduce the concept oftechnology scurves and explain how it can be used. These deal with the performance path of a disruptive technology and its impact on. This highly practical book offers organizations a distinct response to emerging technologies including blockchain bitcoin, artificial. Its now the age of big bang disruption, where every business is a digital business. First used by in 1903 by gabriel tarde, who first plotted the sshaped diffusion curve.
This is a technology based disruption reminiscent of how the cell phone, internet, and personal computer swept away industries such as landline telephony, publishing, and mainframe computers. This is a technologybased disruption reminiscent of how the cell phone, internet, and personal computer swept away industries such as landline telephony, publishing, and mainframe computers. Clay was named the worlds most influential business management thinker in 2011 and 20. Disruptive technologies and their implications for economic. When we look at technology cost curves, its important to know what the main driver of the improvement is. However, scaling cmos technology leads to steadily increasing. Nov 22, 2016 the six ds are a chain reaction of technological progression, a road map of rapid development that always leads to enormous upheaval and opportunity. The innovators dilemma is promoting a continuous innovation process within any industry.
Harnessing disruptive innovation sdisruptive innovation can be a good thing sorganizations need to recognize disruptive innovation %. Report on disruptive technologies for years 20202030. Ubers move to take on the taxi industry seems counterintuitive at first for students of disruptive innovation because, from the outside, it appears to be a march downmarket as opposed to up. Never blame technology for your failure, a brand must be one step. Generally, disruptive technologies look financially unattractive to. Ebooks were invented in 1971 with michael harts project. A companys revenue and cost structures play a critical role in the way it evaluates proposed technological innovations. Furthermore, photonics, a technology that uses photons for communication, can be used to replace communication busses to enable a new form of inter and intrachip communication. The theory fits greatly to a foundational innovation that is currently in the news and i describe in detail in another post.
Diffusion of innovations theory, pioneered by everett rogers, posits that people have different levels of readiness for adopting new innovations and that the. By using a quicktomaster evaluation and decisionmaking framework structured around the key dimensions of technology, behaviour and data tbd. Disruptive innovation, a term of art coined by clayton christensen, describes a process by which a product or service takes root initially in simple applications at the bottom of a market and then relentlessly moves up market, eventually displacing established competitors. Jan 05, 2016 it begins with an understanding of the s curve. Use features like bookmarks, note taking and highlighting while reading the innovators dilemma. However, according to christensen, who coined the term in his 1997 book, the innovators dilemma, the ridehailing app isnt an example of true disruptive innovation. Technology evolution follows a step function, not an s curve.
Swansons law postulates that solar pv costs tend to fall by about 20% for every doubling of cumulative shipped volume. Moore shows a model that dissects and represents the stages of adoption of hightech products. The music industry, following some of the timeline of audio formats, is a. The s curve of innovation is a robust framework that can be used to analyze various industries at their different stages and to explain their successes and failures. Current cmos technology may presumably scale continuously in the next decade, down to 6 or 5 nm. The technology adoption life cycle typically occurs in an s curve, as modelled in diffusion of innovations theory. It expands on the concept of disruptive technologies, a term he coined in a. The aim of this paper is to discuss some of the consequences of this development, based on the work of the ebooks in sweden research project.
In our experience, too many people who speak of disruption have not read a serious book or article on the subject. Disruptive technologies outlines the steps businesses can take to engage with emerging technologies today in order to serve the consumer of tomorrow. The fallacy of the scurve a closer look at the accepted evolutionary theory of technology reveals a lawed model that may also act as scurve. To explain the impact of the ebook phenomenon we use winstons theory of. Hypergrowth follows up the steep back of the curve. This is because customers respond to new products in different ways. After this point, performance improves at a decreasing rate until matu rity. For automation of knowledge work, we received input from rickard carlsson, alex incecushman, alex kazaks, nathan marston, and chad wegner.
Christensen harvard university graduate school of business administration, boston, massachusetts 02 163 the technology scurve is a useful framework describing the substitution of new for old. How, then, is the development of the ebook going to disrupt this process, if it is, indeed, a disruptive technology. The theory of disruptive innovation i presents some intriguing inconsistencies for. Why companies need to eat their children a comprehensive. A disruptive innovation is an innovation that creates a new market and value network that will eventually disrupt an already existing market and replace. Innovative or disruptive technology trends not only have the power to change how people access information, but how we interact with the world around us. When new technologies cause great firms to fail management of innovation and change kindle edition by christensen, clayton m download it once and read it on your kindle device, pc, phones or tablets. This framework, which operates alongside the bass model, is used to determine performance in regards to time and effort. The model has a lot of empirical evidence and assisted. This process has been proposed as the standard life cycle of innovations can be described using the. The music industry, following some of the timeline of audio formats, is a great example.
An intellectual history and directions for future research article pdf available in journal of management studies june 2018 with 7,078 reads how we measure reads. For automation of knowledge work, we received input from rickard carlsson, alex incecushman, alex. He writes and speaksabout disruptive innovation and technological change. A companys position on the innovation curve indicates how it thinks about, embraces, or adapts to change. This book offers the knowledge and tools to engage confidently with emerging technologies for better business. The six ds are a chain reaction of technological progression, a road map of rapid development that always leads to enormous upheaval and opportunity. The challenge of forecasting disruptive technologies, s4 an overview of technology forecasting techniques, s4 attributes of an effective disruptive technology forecasting system, s6 benchmarking the persistent forecasting system, s7 steps to build a persistent forecasting system for disruptive technologies, s7 conclusion, s8 references, s8. Pdf the concept of disruptive innovation has gained considerable currency among practitioners despite.
Jumping the scurve, paul nunes and tim breene leaders of accenture s high performance business research program reveal how the best companies get to the top and stay there. From the worlds leading thinker on innovation and new york times bestselling author comes an unconventional book. Rogers in 1962, the s curve is a graphic illustration of how disruptive ideas and products spread through cultures. It expands on the concept of disruptive technologies, a term he coined in a 1995 article disruptive technologies. Chapter 14 the electronic book as a disruptive technology. One of the most famous concepts in innovation is the innovation scurve, the technology life cycle. Similarly, the e book has the potential to disrupt the processes for the production, distribution and use of authorial texts, and is already in the process of doing so. When new technologies cause great firms to fail, generally referred to as the innovators dilemma, first published in 1997, is the bestknown work of the harvard professor and businessman clayton christensen. The term disruptive technologies was first described in depth with this book by christensen. The ebook and its associated technology have emerged as a disruptive technology over the past ten years. Digital disruption and disruptive innovation is the new.
The great digital illusion seduces leaders from some of the worlds biggest brands. Rogers in 1962, the scurve is a graphic illustration of how disruptive ideas and products spread through cultures. Christensen 1997 notes that the products of a disruptive technology tend to be simpler and cheaper than the established equivalent, they offer lower marginal profits and emerge initially in emerging or. Nevertheless, the terms disruptive technology and disruptive innovation were seldom used before clayton christensen published the innovator s dilemma in 1997. The theory of disruptive innovation, introduced in these pages in 1995, has proved to be a powerful way of thinking about innovationdriven growth. A related issue is overuse of disruptive innovationdisruption as a synonym for.
For example, when online ordering became popular, it disrupted many conventional brickandmortar retail businesses as. Just like those technology disruptions flipped the architecture of information and brought abundant, cheap and participatory information, the clean. Disruptive innovation theory observes how new innovations create a new market and a new value network, which in turn disrupts an existing market. The electronic book, or ebook, is a book that is read on a computer or other electronic device2. Nevertheless, the terms disruptive technology and disruptive innovation were seldom used before clayton christensen published the innovators dilemma in 1997.
The model goes through five stages based on the psychographic features of customers at each stage. Peter diamandis and steven kotler, bold we live in incredible times. The concept of the s curve and adopter categorization by rogers 19622003 has been widely used and referenced. This happens due to the vast technological changes that occur daily in todays society. Disruptive technologies provides a clear roadmap to assess, respond to and problemsolve. The concept of the scurve and adopter categorization by rogers 19622003 has been widely used and referenced. We call this line the new products reservation price curve.